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Thoughts on /ES 🤔

/ES

Incredible rally just like last time after FOMC, many were bearish but it was not the day to short as they killed the premium on every head fake down.
Is the top in? Where do we go now?

If AAPL has good earnings we can see 4165 and 4179 on an overshoot. That is where we ran into issues last time before the 500pt drop.

I will be off Friday, as this volatility you must be careful with up here…

LEVEL Recap From Yesterday Journal + Levels To WATCH INTO TOMORROW:

• $ES_F-bounce right off 3994 - and to 4034 and slightly higher. Watch 4093 vPOC
• $SPY-405.66 and 406.91 topped at on the dot. Watch that level for resistance/roll over over that 409.15 vPOC
• $NQ-Needs 12727 to hold and possibly 12880 next...careful
• $VIX-holding 22.38 zone...need over that to hold for us to see 24.18 then 24.69+
• $QQQ-need over 308.05 to hold from there 312.65 and 313.77 could be tested
• $AAPL-could see our 160+level if earnings are good. Top of Channel Up pattern we have.
• $MSFT-hit our 277.97 level on the dot and rejected! Below 273.81 is not good...
• $AMD-in the gap zone could see 95.57 vPOC tested... but below 90.38 we head down to 88.06
• $NVDA-near 91.53 level but could reject and roll over and not the fill the gap but if so 95.57 vPOC is open eventually for testing.
• $GOOGL-need over 113.97 to hold for 115.47
• TSLA-needs over 847 for upside..below back down to 804

Something doesn’t add up quite yet with this move up so let’s go over the break down of the levels for each stock individually and paint a picture of where we are.

“Remember, the market transfers money from the impatient to the patient!”

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Stocks We Will Be Reviewing

• FUTURES - /ES & /NQ
• ETFs - QQQ (tech) & IWM (small caps)
• VIX - Volatility Index
• STOCKS - AAPL / MSFT / AMD / NVDA / AMZN / GOOGL / TSLA

/ES

Game Plan:

OPEN Above POC - 4071 - Need over 4093 but that vPOC could be resistance. Over that it could get very choppy as tops are around 4165 to 4179 before last 500 point drop!

Upside Levels:  3863 > 3886 > 3899 > 3914 > 3934 > 3950 > 3965 >  4029 > 4045 > 4073 > 4093 > 4165

• OPEN Below POC - 4071 - Below 4073 we can head down to 4045 then really 3994 support. Below that not much support and we can test 3974 vPOC. Below  we will likely see 3910 and lower.
  Further Downside Levels.  3834 > 3824 > 3807 > 3797 > 3758 > 3743 > 3724 >  3703 > 3679 > 3660 > 3639 > 3592.25 > 3423.25 > 3396.5 > 3227.5

POC: 4071  / VH: 4082 / VL: 4018

SPY

Game Plan:

OPEN Above POC - 405 -406.91 could be resistance so careful. Overshoot to 409.15 vPOC is possible but not that level. Over that 412.11 is next.

Further Upside Levels: 381.85 > 383.17 > 383.89 > 387.2 > 392.2 > 390.12 > 391.34 > 396.36 > 401.45 > 405.66 > 409.15 > 412.11

OPEN Below POC - 405 - Below 405.66 we could see back down to 401.45 or really 398.68. If we break that 396.1 vPOC could be tested!

Further Downside Levels.  394.02 > 390.86 > 389.31 > 387.2 > 383.17 > 380.26 > 374.28 > 371.04 > 368.5 > 367.4 > 365.18 > 362.17

POC: 405  / VH: 406 / VL: 402

/NQ

Game Plan:

• OPEN Above POC 12728 -  Need over 12727 to hold we can then see 12880 where we may run into resistance again.
  Further Upside Levels:  11847 > 11973 > 12045 > 12514 > 12227 > 12295 > 12407 > 12473
• OPEN Below POC - 12728 - Below 12727 we can see 12583 then 12522. if we continue down 12430 POC will be tested then 12295 to 12258 zone could get choppy.
  Further Downside Levels: 12142 > 12045 > 11973 > 11897 > 11847 > 11805 > 11742 > 11667 > 11641 > 11483 > 11434 > 11373 > 11288 > 11267 > 11174 > 11061 > 10937 > 10660 > 10304 > 10171

POC: 12728 / VH: 12749 / VL: 12535

VIX

Game Plan:

• Back over 24.69 we will push higher and eventually see 28.42
• Downside we can retest 22.38 were we bounced before.

QQQ

Game Plan:

OPEN Above POC - 309 -  Need over 308.54 to hold. From there we can continue this rally to 312.65 and 313.77 where we could run into issues!

Further Upside Levels:  296.94 > 299.72 > 302.33 > 304.02 > 306.34 > 308.05 > 312.65 > 313.77

OPEN Below POC - 309 - Below 308.05 we can see 306.34 then 302.2 POC tested eventually as not much support in between. Below that we could go for 298.55 then gap fill down to 294.96 vPOC.

Further Downside Levels: 289.05 > 283.42 >  278.8 >  274.97 > 271.78 > 269.56 > 266.75 > 259.65 > 256.84

POC: 309 / VH: 310 / VL: 305

IWM

Game Plan:

• OPEN Above POC - 185 - Need to hold over  185.49 from there we can see 187.07/.97. If we really manage to run not much overhead till 191.56
  Further Upside Levels: 174.58 > 176.44 > 178.67 > 179.67 > 182.11

OPEN Below POC - 185 - Below 185.04 we can see 182.59 then we will see 181.02 vPOC tested and eventually 178.67. If all fails and we collapse we will see 175.64 vPOC tested then 172.78.
Further Downside levels: 176.44 > 175.64 > 174.6 > 173.14 > 171.65 > 170.7 > 167.93  > 165.56 > 164.03 > 162.78 > 159.68 > 153.51 > 144.88

GAPS: 175.01 > 174.34 / 168.34 > 165.71 / 157.71 > 155.89

POC: 185 / VH: 186 / VL: 184

AAPL

Game Plan:

OPEN Above POC - 157 - over 155.72 hold we test 157.82. From there 160.21 vPOC.

Further Upside Levels: 148.07 > 149.95 > 150.36 > 154.19 > 157.82 > 160.21

• OPEN Below POC - 157 -  Below 155..65 we will see 154.33 we will see 153.06 then 151.61 vPOC tested. If that fails 150.36 will be tested. If all fails 148.3 zone is next. That opens the doors to 146.41 then 144.39/143.59.
  Further Downside Levels: 143.59 > 142.41 > 140.29 > 138.84 > 137.05 > 135.92 > 134.1 > 132.98 > 131.77 > 130.64 > 128.65. 126.65 > 124.07 > 123.02 > 120.56 > 118.94

POC: 157 / VH: 157 / VL: 156

MSFT

Game Plan:

• OPEN Above POC - 276 - Needs to hold 273.81 for us to see 277 retest then 282.19.
  Further Upside Levels:   258.82 > 261.64 > 264.7 > 267.22 > 270.9 > 273.81 > 277.97
• OPEN Below POC - 276 - Below273.81 we will see possibly 270.9 but not much support til 264.7 vPOC. Below that 261.64 then 258.91 zone.
  Further downside levels: 256.79 > 254.85 > 253.81 > 247.57 > 245.94 > 243.56 > 241.8 >  238.01 > 231.78 > 229.16 > 227.3 > 224.35 > 220.86

POC: 276 / VH: 277 / VL: 273

AMD

Game Plan: IN THE GAP ZONE

• OPEN Above POC - 90 - Over 91.53 we can see 93.93 then 95.57 vPOC tested.
  Further Upside Levels: 80.4 > 81.03 > 83.46 >  85.92 > 87.72 > 91.53

OPEN Below POC - 90 -  Below 88 vPOC not much support till 87.73 zone. Below that 86.77 we will see then 85.2 vPOC test.
Further Downside Levels:  83.14 > 81.03 > 79.81 > 77.28 > 76.36 > 74.47 > 72.54 > 69.74 > 62.3

GAPS: 116.38 > 118.59 (up)

POC: 90 / VH: 91 / VL: 89

NVDA

Game Plan:

OPEN Above POC - 178 -Need over 179.32 POC to hold for us to go any higher. If so next is 182.53 then 185.52.

Further Upside Levels:  162.8 > 165.78 > 168.48 > 170.55 > 172.04 > 175.19 > 176.75 > 179.32 > 182.53

OPEN Below POC - 178 - Below 179.32 we will see 176.75 and lower. We could test 173.68 and then 169.11. If we dive 165.78 is in play.

Further Downside Levels: 169.11 > 162.8 > 160.89 > 158.09 > 156.83 > 153.05 > 150.93 > 148.75 > 140.03 > 135.04 > 126.3 > 116.93

POC: 178 / VH: 180 / VL: 177

AMZN

Game Plan: ABSOLUTE GAPPER MONSTER RUNNER

• OPEN Above POC - 121 - Need over 135.86 to hold. If so we push retest 139.59 then can test 141.96 and 145.53
  Further upside levels: 113.81 > 114.81 > 115.43 > 116.45 > 119.73 > 121.32 > 125 > 126.51 > 129.03 > 130.87 > 135.86 > 139.59 > 141.96 > 145.53 > 148.88
• OPEN Below POC - 121 - Below 135.86 we make our way down to close the gap at 130.87 zone. Below that 129.03 then 126.51 POC is next.
  Further Downside levels:  125 > 121.46 > 117.89 > 114.95

POC: 121 / VH: 122 / VL: 120

GOOGL

Game Plan:

• OPEN Above POC - 113 -Need over 113.97 for us to push higher. From there we can see 115.47 then 116.26
  Further Upside Levels: 108.68 > 109.61 > 112.57 > 114.04 >  115.47 > 116.26 > 116.95 > 111.05

OPEN Below POC - 114 -  Below 112.87 we see 111.6 then could head right back down to 109.61 then 107.6. If we dive we can see 105.13 vPOC tested then 104.06 bottom tested again.

Further Downside Levels:   106.22 > 105.73 > 104.06 > 102.42

POC: 113 / VH: 114  / VL: 112

TSLA

Game Plan:

• OPEN Above POC - 842 - Need to hold over 832 we can retest 844/847 zone. From there we can make a run for 870.83 eventually.
  Further upside levels: 678.47 > 692.15> 707.25 >715.72 > 726.9 >  732 >  747 > 782 > 802.87 > 847.95 > 870.83 > 916.14 > 994
• OPEN Below POC - 842 - Below 832 we see 807. If we head down to 792.06 zone and if that breaks right down to head down to 775 vPOC. If that fails 763 is next up.  
  Further Downside levels: 747 > 742.81 > 726.35 > 715.72 > 704.1 > 688.63 > 674.96 > 665.88 > 651.63 > 636.43 > 623.68 > 611.15 > 599.75 > 588.61 > 579.8

POC: 842 / VH: 846 / VL: 832

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